2027: Can Coalition repeat 2015 feat, stop ruling party?
FOR over one year, leading opposition figures in Nigeria have been criticising the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC -administration of President Bola Tinubu. Apart from pooh-poohing his policies, which they said had brought suffering and hardship on the citizenry, they claimed that the government was muzzling the opposition to enthrone a one-party state, which they said is a threat to democracy.
Consequently, they vowed to come together, regardless of party affiliations, to stop APC and Tinubu in 2027 and “rescue” Nigerians from the vice grip of the ruling party.
Top opposition leaders, who started the crusade include former Vice President and 2023 Presidential Candidate of the People’s Democratic Party, PDP, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar; former Anambra State Governor and 2023 Presidential Standard bearer of the Labour Party, LP, Mr.Peter Obi; Former Kano State Governor and 2023 Presidential flag bearer of the New Nigeria People’s Party, NNPP,, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso; and National Chairman of the African Democratic Congress, ADC, Chief Ralphs Okey Nwosu among others.
Emergence of ADC coalition
Several months after, and after wide consultations, a coalition was formed. The leaders resolved to adopt the ADC as it’s platform for the 2027 polls.
At the unveiling of the ADC coalition on July 2, 2025, a host of opposition leaders from many parties including APC, LP, and PDP, signed up. They include former Senate President David Mark; former Rivers State Governor and Transport Minister, Mr Rotimi Amaechi; former Kaduna State Governor, Malam Nasir el-Rufai; former Osun State Governor and Interior Minister, Engr Rauf Aregbesola and serving lawmakers at federal and state levels.
National officers of the ADC led by Nwosu resigned their posts for a new leadership led by Mark (interim national chairman) and Aregbesola (interim national secretary) to mount the saddle with a vow to beat Tinubu in 2027.
Can the coalition stop Tinubu in 2027? Will the coalition repeat the 2015 feat? In the annals of electioneering in Nigeria, the then nascent APC became the first opposition party to beat a ruling party in a presidential election. It was also the first time the opposition forged a successful alliance in the country.
How APC floored the ruling party
The move to berth APC started before 2010 but could not be concretised in time for the 2011 polls. The work continued after and in 2013, less than two years to the 2015 election, the Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN; Congress for Progressive Change, CPC; All Nigeria People’s Party, ANPP; factions of the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA, and Democratic People’s Party, DPP, joined forces to form APC. They applied to the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, and got listed.
Fielding former Military Head of State, Major-General Muhammadu Buhari, who died recently, as presidential standard bearer, the APC, in a keen contest, beat re-election-seeking President Goodluck Jonathan and ended the 16 years reign of the PDP.
In 2027, the APC will be 12 years in the saddle. Can the coalition stop the ruling party from achieving victory and equalling PDP’s 16 years by 2031?
Nagging questions 465 days to election
As of now, exactly 465 days to the February 20, 2027 presidential election, it is difficult to answer these questions affirmatively.
Hurdles before opposition
Reasons: Opposition parties are still disunited and are at daggers drawn against one another. Unlike during the formation of APC, when the proponents left their old parties, many top shots, governors, and others are yet to join the coalition and lawmakers are yet to formalise their defections in the various chambers.
Some Senators like Aminu Tambuwal, Abdul Ningi, Enyinnaya Abaribe, Ireti Kingibe, and Austin Akobundu of Abia Central are romancing with the ADC, but have not officially announced as required in the Senate.
Luring Obi to PDP
Some of those backing the coalition, like Alhaji Sule Lamido, said they would remain in their original parties and work for the coalition. Even, Peter Obi, a major kingpin, is yet to abandon LP and fully declare for ADC. On Wednesday, leaders of the PDP, including former Information Minister, Prof Jerry Gana and Abduljabbar Rufai, said they were in talks with Obi and wooing him to return to the PDP.
Specifically, Gana, a founding member of the PDP, said Obi, running on the platform of the PDP, would beat any contender in the North. “I am a researcher, and I research opinions. In the northern states, Peter Obi under the PDP will defeat any candidate because our people are very fair-minded,” he said.
On Thursday, Obi confirmed the overtures from the PDP and said he was open to collaborations that would rescue the country.
Speaking through the National Coordinator of the Obodient Movement, Dr Yunusa Tanko, he said he was open to discussions with persons and political paries that can bring about the new Nigeria we all hope and pray for.
PDP, SDP attack ADC
Penultimate week, the PDP and Social Democratic Party, SDP, attacked the coalition. While the PDP said it remained the viable alternative to the APC, it vowed to sanction any of its lawmakers who defects to the ADC. On its part, the SDP spoke in like manner and expelled el-Rufai for allegedly not joining the SDP properly and using the name of the party to trade in the ADC.
Battle for ADC ticket
There is also the issue of who will fly the flag of the ADC among the quartet of Atiku, Obi, Amaechi and el-Rufai. There are speculations that the leaders may abandon the ADC if they fail to get the ticket.
However, the leaders have dismissed these speculations as unfounded insisting that the coalition is about Nigeria not the ambitions of the gladiators angling for the presidency.
Internal crises in opposition parties
Also, most of the leading opposition parties are enmeshed in protracted crises that could be terminal. The PDP is yet to wriggle out from the control and influence of former Rivers State Governor and Federal Capital Territory Minister, Mr Nyesom Wike, who as PDP governor, worked for Tinubu’s election and is backing the president for a second term. With some governors, lawmakers and leaders defecting to the APC and ADC, the PDP has a huge task at hand to remain very strong and fair well in the 2027 polls.
LP, one party, three faces
For the LP, there are two main factions and a third in the shadows led Apapa with Abayomi Arabambi as spokesman: One of the factions is led by Julius Abure, and the other by Nenadi Usman, who enjoys the support of most stakeholders, including Obi, Governor Alex Otti of Abia State, Nigerian Labour Congress, NLC, and Trade Union Congress of Nigeria, TUC etc.
INEC is yet to make a pronouncement on which faction it supports in spite of a Supreme Court verdict of April 4, 2025, which both factions claim to be in their favour. On INEC’s website, Abure is listed as National Chairman. The electoral umpire says it is still studying the Supreme Court judgement, it has however refused to invite Abure for any of its meetings since the Supreme Court decision.
New faction in ADC
In the ADC, Mr Nafi’u Bala, on Thursday, announced himself as national chairman, claiming that outsiders had hijacked the party contrary to its ethos and objectives. Bala was deputy to Nwosu. ADC leaders dismissed Bala’s announcement as balderdash, stating that he willingly resigned as deputy national chairman and displayed his letter of resignation.
The last is yet to be heard on this issue, which may constitute a drag on the political flight of the ADC coalition.
Bashing from ruling party
Apart from the internal fissures, the opposition parties are also facing bashing from the ruling APC, which their leaders termed plot to make Nigeria a one-party state. They alleged that the APC was using anti-graft agencies to ‘force’ some opposition governors, lawmakers and stalwarts to join the ruling party.
Currently, the APC has 23 of the 36 governors, 70 senators and majority in the House of Representatives.
The PDP has 28 senators and 10 governors. The LP has one governor and five senators, APGA and NNPP has one governor and one senator each while the SDP has two senators
The APC had 20 governors in 2023 and less than 60 senators after the polls.
Alleged harassment of LP leaders
The Senator Nenadi Usman-led LP, on Wednesday raised alarm over harassment of its leaders by security agencies based on a petition by Arambambi that key LP leaders were plotting to overthrow President Tinubu under the guise of a protest themed: “One million man march” to reclaim “the former national secretariat of the party currently occupied by erswhile chairman, Julius Abure, at Utako, Abuja.”
Claiming that security agents had been harassing key LP leaders on the strength of the petition, it warned that the path “is a slippery slope that endangers our democracy” and called on security agencies to thoroughly investigate those behind the petition and an agenda to heat up the polity.
How APC’s stifling opposition —Bafarawa, Nwosu
Former Sokoto State Governor, Alhaji Attahiru Bafarawa, recently urged President Tinubu to allow the opposition to flourish. He warned that stifling dissent would harm the country’s democracy, and reminded Tinubu that his own rise to power was made possible by a thriving opposition.
In an open letter, Bafarawa told Tinubu: ”Those before you allowed opposition politics to exist. You are a product of opposition politics. It would be a grave mistake to suppress it now,” he stated. Anyone advising you to muzzle the opposition is misleading you. Democracy dies where opposition is stifled, and without democracy, good governance, peace, and progress suffer.”
He also warned against attempts to create a one-party state, calling it a dangerous path that could lead to instability.
“Nigeria cannot afford a one-party system. A strong democratic order is essential for national progress and for future generations. If past leaders had destroyed the opposition, you wouldn’t have had a platform to reach your current position. Rather than weaken the opposition, it would be wiser to institutionalise strong political parties.”
On his part, Nwosu, on Wednesday claimed that he turned down lucrative offers—including three ministerial slots and a staggering ¦ 10 billion—in exchange for halting ADC’s role as the principal opposition coalition platform in the country.
He also said that the ruling party had sent infiltrators to the ADC and vowed that they would be smoked out
Addressing newsmen in Abuja on Wednesday, Nwosu stated that despite pressure from powerful political figures and close associates, he made the “difficult but patriotic decision” to prioritize Nigeria’s democratic stability over personal gain.
“I do not want Nigeria to become a one-party state. Even though I was advised by people close to me not to give up my position as National Chairman, I chose Nigeria first,” Nwosu declared.
Asked what the government had done to destroy the coalition, Nwosu said: They have used them (infiltrators) to go to court to say they don’t agree with what we are doing and that it should be stopped.”
Instead of stifling opposition, Nwosu urged the government to allow a free democratic process instead and engage the citizenry.
However, the Presidency picked holes in Nwosu’s claims of three ministerial slots and bribe to stop the ADC from being the coalition platform.
Daniel Bwala, special adviser on Policy Communications to President Tinubu, said Nwosu lied because “no government official in our administration can promise or grant ministerial slots but Mr. President.”
Coalition’s faulty steps —Olu Fasan
Asked to share his thoughts on the chances of the emerging coalition of Atiku, Obi, Amaechi, El-Rufai, and David Mark among others to stop Tinubu in 2027 via ADC, Dr Olu Fasan, a journalist, lawyer, economist and academic, said the coalition appears formidable but not sure-footed.
His words: “Politics in Nigeria is all about elite competition for power and political parties, as I argued earlier, are mere special purpose vehicles for capturing the state, with absolutely nothing distinguishing them in terms of ideologies, policies or issues. All of those coming together under the ADC were either formerly in the PDP or in the APC, and some have been in both. Do they disagree with the APC because of what the party stands for? No.Many of them will happily return to or join the APC tomorrow, if the circumstances permit.
“So, the bottom line is that their only disagreement is with President Tinubu, who, of course, currently embodies the APC. They disagree with Tinubu’s leadership style, governance style and buccaneering approach to politics. And truth be told, Tinubu has governed with utter arrogance. Here’s is someone who won just 37 per cent of the popular vote and yet rules magisterially as if he won a landslide, arrogating unprecedented powers to himself and deploying them whimsically. Within just two years in office, Tinubu has allowed more than seven national monuments to be named after him. Every patriotic Nigerian should be appalled by that personalisation of the state. So, it’s not hard to see why opposition politicians are ganging up against him.
“In theory, the coalition is formidable because, going by the votes that Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi secured in the 2023 presidential election, the coalition controls 55 per cent of the popular vote against Tinubu’s 37 per cent. But that’s the theory. In practice, they are unlikely to remain united because of conflicting presidential ambitions. For instance, there is no guarantee that Atiku’s supporters will support Obi and vice versa. Second, in my view, the coalition’s emergence is not sure-footed. If they are truly serious about uniting to defeat Tinubu in 2027, why did they not put their money where their mouth is by forming a new party instead of hijacking an existing hitherto moribund party?
“The optic is not good. It is as if the coalition has just “rented” the ADC for 2027. Nigerians knew the APC was a serious opposition party when several parties dissolved themselves and collapsed their structures into the new party. Some said INEC would not register a party formed by the coalition, but that’s inconceivable. If that were to happen, INEC would have compromised 2027 irredeemably. So, the coalition needs to make the ADC look like a credible political party, not a rented vehicle for 2027.
“But the third, perhaps most serious, challenge the coalition will face is that it might not be easy to defeat a ruthless incumbent unless they come up with a stronger candidate, a formidable winning strategy and a credible alternative agenda for government. The coalition cannot just tell Nigerians that Tinubu and the APC are bad, they must say how they would be different if they replaced him.”
Tinubu’ll win with over 15m votes — Felix
Indeed, :one of the 2023 presidential aspirants of the APC, Dr Nicolas Felix has dismissed the ADC as a party built on sand, saying President Tinubu would win the 2027 presidential election with at least 15 million votes.
Felix, supported by the Deputy National Woman Leader of the APC, Hajia Zainab Ibrahim, spoke in Suleja, Niger State where he distributed thousands of litres of fuel to Nigerians, on Thursday.
ADC not a threat to APC
According to him, there was nothing wrong in opposition elements gathering themselves into a coalition, saying they will scatter in the same manner that they had gathered.
He said: “In a democracy, you must have opposition. We are not threatened. They are out there campaigning. So far, we have not heard anything they want to do anyway. So for us as a party, I don’t see any threat here. There is no threat in this coalition. We want them to coalesce. Like I said the other day, they will gather, but they will scatter because they have nothing to offer. Their intention is not pure. Their motive is not pure.
“As far as we are concerned in the APC, come 2027, President Bola Tinubu is going to have nothing less than 15 million votes. We know that is going to happen. So there is no threat with the ADC or whatever coalition. Let them come. When the time comes for campaigns, we are going to roll out the scorecard of Mr President.”
Will opposition allow APC run away with victory?
Giving the challenges in the opposition parties and the coalition, and alleged stifling of the opposition some analysts have expressed fears that the ruling party may win the election with little or no contest.
To stop this, the leading opposition parties are expected to unite, subjugate ambitions of individual aspirants to collective good, resist alleged juicy carrots and offers of the APC, and field a strong candidate against Tinubu.
Whether or not the opposition can do these is a question of time.